The
New NIE report on Iran’s nuclear capabilities
David Phillips is a Vietnam era veteran, a
Democratic Party activist, and the publisher and editor of the online political
magazine YodasWorld.org
E-mail questions or comments: oneyoda@aol.com
About two weeks ago, a portion of the National
Intelligence Estimate (NIE) report, which is a compilation of the assessments
of all sixteen U.S. intelligence agencies, said that Iran’s pursuit of enrichment
of uranium was halted in 2003.
The NIE report,
dated Oct. 31, 2007, says:
• “We
judge with high confidence that in the fall of 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear
weapons program.”
• “We
judge with high confidence that the halt lasted at least several years.”
• “We
assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007.”
• “We
continue to assess with moderate to high confidence that Iran does not
currently have a nuclear weapon.”
Read full report: http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/international/20071203_release.pdf.
Now you have the basic high points of the report, so why
has President Bush been pounding the war drums and why has he doggedly said
that Iran is continuing its pursuit of weaponized
uranium? And most importantly, when did he learn of the NIE report?
The following portion of a press conference Q and A on
Dec. 4, 2007 is from a White House press release from the same date:
NBC’s David Gregory: “Mr. President, thank you. I’d like
to follow on that. When you talked about Iraq, you and others in the
administration talked about a mushroom cloud; then there were no WMD in Iraq.
“When it came to Iran, you said in October, on October
17th, you warned about the prospect of World War III, when months before you
made that statement, this intelligence about them suspending their weapons
program back in ‘03 had already come to light to this administration. So can’t
you be accused of hyping this threat? And don’t you worry that that undermines
U.S. credibility?”
The President: “David, I don’t want to contradict an
august reporter such as yourself, but I was made aware
of the NIE last week. In August, I think it was Mike McConnell came in and said, we have some new information. He didn’t tell me what the information
was; he did tell me it was going to take a while to analyze. Why would you take
time to analyze new information? One, you want to make sure it’s not
disinformation. You want to make sure the piece of intelligence you have is
real. And secondly, they want to make sure they understand the intelligence
they gathered: If they think it’s real, then what does it mean? And it wasn’t
until last week that I was briefed on the NIE that is now public.”
OK, so now you have the timeline of when Bush said he learned
of this new intelligence, but there is more.
Last Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Dana Perino attempted to defend President Bush’s version about
when he first learned that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program.
The New Yorker’s Seymour Hersh
said that Bush spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert
about the NIE on Monday, Nov. 26.
CNN’s Ed Henry asked Perino,
“How could he brief Olmert on Monday about a report
that he found out about on Wednesday?” Perino
responded, “I don’t -- I will check ... it’s possible that he knew that there
was information coming.”
When Bush responded to Gregory at the press conference he
seemed to have a pretty good handle on the NIE report and its conclusions.
So why has President Bush been pounding the war drums for
the last year? Simple, to drive up the price of oil and to increase the profits
for his friend King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, increase profits for American oil
corporations and other corporations such as Halliburton.
Every time Bush has rattled his saber, the price of oil
increased. Now that the NIE report has come out, the price of oil has been
declining.