Looking at the field of Democratic candidates who have announced that they are running for the top job in the world, President of the United States, the big question at the moment is: who is likely to win the nomination to represent the Democrats in the

Looking at the field of Democratic candidates who have announced that they are running for the top job in the world, President of the United States, the big question at the moment is: who is likely to win the nomination to represent the Democrats in the 2008 election?  At this point, only eight of the 26 who have declared seem credible.  And, in my opinion, only four of those have any chance of winning.  Here’s how I see it:

The eight declared candidates who appear to have sufficient qualifications and or credibility to make it to the Democratic national convention are: Senator Joseph R. Biden, Jr. (DE), Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY), Senator Christopher J. Dodd CT), John R. Edwards, former Senator Maurice Gravel (AK), Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (OH), Senator Barack H. Obama (IL) and Governor Bill Richardson (NM).

However, I don’t believe the following four are really contenders:

            Sen. Joseph Biden: projects an attitude of superiority and runs off at the mouth to the point of excess.  To me, he is a self-righteous non-stop talker, who gives the impression that he thinks he’s the center of the political universe.

            Sen. Christopher Dodd: solid background but does not appear to have a large enough political base to attract the money and support that are needed for a serious run at the Presidency.

            Former Sen. Maurice Gravel: not enough name recognition or sufficient political base to raise the necessary money for a presidential campaign.

            Rep. Dennis Kucinich: too liberal to be a serious Presidential contender, even for the Democratic Party.  He will not be able to attract enough supporters or sufficient funding to mount a real campaign.  However, I suspect he is really running primarily to have a platform for expressing his ideas and beliefs.

Looking at the Democratic field from the Right, my take is that these four will fall by the wayside, probably on the way to the convention, and that only Senators Clinton and Obama, John Edwards, and possibly Gov. Bill Richardson are likely to make it that far.  

Evaluating the Candidates

Evaluating these four, again from the perspective of the Right, here’s how I see them:

John Edwards: Very light on qualifications, having served only one term in the U.S.  Senate and with few accomplishments in that capacity before being selected to run with John Kerry as the Democratic standard, bearers in the last election.

Edwards’ pitch, “Two Americas,” is aimed at people of lesser means, many of whom may feel they are not getting their “fair share” of America’s economic pie.  However, the problem is that Sen. Edwards is not one of them himself. He has a net worth estimated at between $12.8 million and $60 million, which he earned as a trial lawyer.   In addition, his flamboyant lifestyle belies the premise of his campaign, which makes him look like a hypocrite.  For example, he is currently completing construction of the largest home in North Carolina, with approximately 28,000 square feet of living area situated on 102 acres, including such luxury features as a swimming pool, a basketball court, a squash court, two stages and a four-story tower.  Not a very convincing platform on which to base his populist campaign message of “Two Americas.”  And, the fact that he reportedly pays $400 for haircuts out of his campaign funds doesn’t help his image.  

Tactically, Sen. Edwards is offering a shopping list of government largesse in an effort to appeal to enough voters to get him elected.  I don’t think it will work and, although he will probably make it to the convention, he won’t get much beyond that.   It’s conceivable that what he is really angling for is some sort of leverage for his political future in the party.

Gov. Bill Richardson: Long on qualifications, he has an excellent resume, having served in previous administrations as Secretary of the Department of Energy, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Democratic Chief Deputy Whip in the House of Representatives and currently as governor of New Mexico.  In addition, he has been a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government and served in a variety of other capacities - as a teacher, businessman and politician, all of which probably makes him the most qualified of the four candidates I believe will make it to the convention.  He also has the added advantage of speaking Spanish and being half Mexican. 

Gov. Richardson is a good candidate on many levels, however, the problem he faces is raising enough money to fund his campaign sufficiently to counter the power of the Clinton political machine. 

Barack Obama: A young lightweight, with great charismatic appeal, who could conceivably win the nomination over Hillary.  Not because she is a woman, but because there are so many negatives in her political profile.  So far, the African-American support appears to have largely shifted to him.  This voting bloc has historically been dominated by the Democrats, and it now appears to be in Sen. Obama’s camp.  The problem is that he lacks experience, having served in Congress only a short while and before that as an Illinois state legislator.  In short, he has done little to speak of, and his voting record in the Illinois legislature has been strongly liberal.  However, it’s important to note that he is proving to be an outstanding fund raiser, rivaling even Hillary’s vaunted ability in this arena.

Hillary Rodham Clinton: Needs no introduction, but her qualifications are deceptive.  On the surface it appears that she is highly qualified: politically active all of her adult life, former partner in a prominent law firm, former First Lady of Arkansas and the United States, author of best selling books about children, and now a U.S. Senator (from NY). She has also served on a number of important corporate boards, including Wal-Mart. 

Overall, she has an excellent resume, at least until you dig into the details, where you will find little of substance that she has actually accomplished on her own.  Politically, she is more a creature of her husband’s success than of her own doing.  In addition, she has very high negatives, even among Democrats.  A recent Gallop Poll found that 51% of voters have a negative view of her.

My Analysis  
In my opinion, it’s going to take a combination of qualifications, charisma and lots of money to get elected in 2008, and Obama is the only one of the bunch with charisma.  Richardson has a dull personality and personal style, Edwards comes off as an egotistical phony (at least to me) and Hillary is generally hostile and antagonistic.

In the final analysis, my guess is that Hillary will get the Democratic nomination and that she might choose Obama as her running mate to “balance the ticket”.  Either way, she will be a formidable candidate - because of her well organized political organization and fund raising ability, coupled with the help of her husband’s masterful political skills.