The benefit of hindsight

 

“If I knew then what I know now, I would not have voted for …” the War on Terror, the War In Iraq, the War on Drugs, the War Against Poverty, the tax cuts of JFK, Reagan, Bush 43, etc., etc., etc., which is to say that if we were prescient or clairvoyant, none of us would ever make any mistakes. The latest in a long line of “if we knew then what we know now” statements about the war in Iraq were made by Hillary Clinton during her campaign for the presidency.

But who ever “knew then what we know now” about anything in their experience?

A lot of politicians have been saying they wouldn’t have voted for the war in Iraq if they knew then what they know now.

 

What does that really mean? Like so many other slogans, it really doesn’t mean anything, other than as an effort to perpetuate the myth that President Bush had secret or privileged information about the situation in Iraq and that he lied to the nation during the run-up to the war.

Considering the fact that most of those in Congress had access to the same information the president did, it’s amazing to me how freely they have been admitting that they were so easily duped and that they were not only uninformed but stupid.

Here are some examples of the things most people probably would not have done in their personal lives if they “knew then what they know now:”

• Invested in the stock market (or a particular stock) just before the market dropped in value.

• Taken the course they failed in college

• Accepted a job offer that didn’t workout

• Married the person they later divorced

• Started or invested in a business that failed

• Bought a home or invested in real estate at the top of the market

 

The list could be endless. Furthermore, many situations are so difficult that they offer only a choice between complex and sometimes painful alternatives, where the outcome is likely to be bad no matter what happens. For example, would Americans have done any of the following differently “if they knew then what they know now:”

• Landed on Normandy beach during D-Day, if they knew there would be 9,000 Allied casualties in just a few days, with approximately one-third killed?

• Attacked the island of Iwo Jima, if they knew there would be 26,000 Allied casualties (mostly American), with nearly 7,000 dead in just 35 days? The Japanese suffered 18,000 killed of 20,000 troops in the same battle.

• Turned down Sudan’s offer to turn over Osama bin Laden to us if they knew he ultimately would be responsible for the attack on the World Trade Center?

• Stood by while Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia and Poland if they knew he subsequently would attack England, the rest of Europe and Russia, killing millions of people in the process?

• Dropped the A-bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki if they knew it would cause the deaths of approximately 174,000 Japanese in the two cities? (Note: At the time, the estimate of possible casualties in an invasion of Japan, which previously had declared that it would not surrender, was around a million.)

 

The question is, if we could look into the future, would we ever make any mistakes?

Mistakes and misjudgments are learning experiences. Without them, there would be few if any improvements in anything: scientific advances, historical and social research, starting small businesses that ultimately grow into major enterprises and employ thousands of people, the space program, the advancement of our laws and civil rights and, yes, warfare and fighting battles, the learning experience itself.

How else do we learn? Certainly not by avoiding all mistakes. I would say the opposite is the case, that we generally learn from them.

No one ever told me life was easy or that I would never make any mistakes. I didn’t expect it to be, and I suspect that’s true of just about everyone else. And, I sure didn’t think I would never make any mistakes.

 

As a matter of fact, my life has been so riddled with them that I’ve lost count, but I’ve learned many valuable lessons as a result.

So, the next time someone tells you they would not have done something “if they knew then what they know now,” you might ask them if they ever made any mistakes and if they learned anything from them. But, that’s just my opinion.

 

 

© 2007 Harris R. Sherline All Rights Reserved